rational geekery

Last Thursday the inevitable happened. After the attacks in New York, Bali, Madrid and hundreds of attacks in the ME, the war on terror came to the United Kingdom.

Prime Minister Tony Blair must have thought he would ride out the threat until after his succession and be able to claim, 'There were no attacks on my watch.' There was a look of helpless disbelief on the PM's face as he addressed the nation at lunchtime on the day of the bombing; his speech however was the usual western political response to terrorism:

"They must not and should not succeed. When they try to intimidate us, we will not be intimidated. [...] The purpose of terrorism is just that - it is to terrorise people and we will not be terrorised." The Guardian

This is the standard message of defiance that could have been from the lips of usurped Spanish president Jose Maria Aznar, Australian PM John Howard, or a fresh faced George W Bush stood on the rubble at Ground Zero. Western leaders are unable to convey any real insight into the Fundamentalist mindset, so attempt to take a Churchillian position of war leader.

Tony Blair is too self-conscious to adequately personify the Commander and Chief character that Bush has perfected; he lacks the steely-eyed confidence and defiance that excuses the incredulous performances of the US president. We have also grown tired of the pseudo empathy of the Blair product, and its deliberate paused delivery. We wince as he falsely ponders his next carefully chosen - see scripted - word. This is not to criticise Blair the person who faced something all leaders dread, but Blair the Statesman.

Has Blair's charismatic capital been spent; the very last drop of blood been squeezed from his credibility? Has Blair pleaded for our trust for the last time, and now we cannot help but be suspicious of his rhetoric?

In not mentioning Iraq, Blair infuriated the Left as they thrashed around deciding on their position. Leftish thought wanted to link the terror attack to the decision to take the country to war. There is no doubt that the terrorists will attempt to justify their attack by demanding British withdrawal from Iraq and Afghanistan, but this diversion is a deliberate PR exercise.

While the presence of US and coalition troops infuriates the Fundamentalist movement, this is not the foundation for their hatred. The real target for their frustrations is their own governments and the political establishment. Radical Islamists see the decadent lifestyles of the Princes and Presidents and see the once proud Islamic civilisation in tatters. As I have said before this is an Islamic crisis manifested in unified outward violence towards the West.

The Right of course is in its element thriving and feeding on the anger that has been unleashed. The Right senses the time is right to mobilise, the political climate is receptive to their cry's for an authoritarian crack down on mosques and Muslim groups. Blair of course treads carefully; the media could manipulate strong words if violence breaks out. We can just imagine the headlines....

The nation is defiant yet wounded. No matter how many times we tell ourselves it was inevitable, we can't help but think something has changed and we are more unsettled - if a little wiser - now. And so we look to our leader as someone who we can unite behind and someone who can make sense of the public consciousness.

Blair unfortunately, is politically crippled by his credibility deficit. The PM is unable to shake the albatross of Iraq, Dr. Kelly, and WMD. We see these issues hanging from his neck as he addresses us, the Great Communicator's message silenced by the inevitable baggage of a third term premiership.

Gordon Brown notably has moved quietly in the shadows hoping the meek shall inherit the earth. As Blair rushed to London, Brown concentrated on keeping the wheels on the Commission to Africa wagon. A respectfully contemplative G8 delivered record pledges on aid to Africa, no doubt facilitated by compassionate intentions to offer solidarity to the Blair government.

In a week that was supposed to the crowning Blairite moment with delivery on both African aid and Olympic candidacy, Blair's hopes have been crushed by a few pounds of high explosives. What we needed over the weekend from the Prime Minister was honesty, insight, and defiance. Not just the latter. We know the reality of our Iraq adventure, and those in power knew before what our involvement would mean. The Joint Intelligence Committee pointed out in February 2003 that al Qaida was: -

"by far the greatest terrorist threat to western interests, and that that threat would be heightened by military action against Iraq". The Guardian

So while Iraq is not the premise for Islamic terror, we know our involvement meant our nation would be singled out for retribution. If he were honest Blair he would have alluded to this inevitable conclusion. Again this sidestepping of the real issue further damages Blair in the eyes of his people.


Is there any point in waiting for the healing process, in a vain attempt to 'leave on a high' is it too late now? Rightly or wrongly the public do trust Gordon Brown. Brown is seen as the steady hands behind the gloss of New Labour. The public trust him on the economy, which for all the doomsayer's predictions (me included) has proven remarkably resilient, and never more so than following Thursday's attacks where the city employed mechanisms to control a possible Fast Market.

In my opinion Blair has the opportunity to be reborn as a Prime Minister, and salvage his legacy. He is the pre-eminent global politician of our time; no single democratically elected leader has had such an impact both domestically and internationally. While many sneered at his address on Thursday, many - Michael Howard among them - saw an experienced leader with the skills and experience to lead this country through this crisis. We may no longer trust Blair implicitly but we know the real deal when we see it, Brown is an unknown quantity as PM. We may not realise what we have till its gone.

Blair has the chance to deliver a strategy to fight the threat of terror, to prove he is capable of living up to his ideas of grandeur. A strategy that would outline how the security services will seek and destroy the terrorist cells in Great Britain. A strategy that would challenge the hateful rhetoric being preached in many of the countries radicalised mosques. A strategy that would secure our ports, and repatriate the country's unofficial residents. But Blair - ever shy of confrontation - has not delivered a significant response yet. Will he use the attack to force through the expensive I.D. card legislation, which will only deliver marginal benefits in the long run, or will Blair propose a strategy that will challenge the root of Islamic discontent?

Imagine Blair's legacy if he were to add real progress on counter-terrorism and the Middle East peace process to the already significant CV. A CV with highlights that include: Aid to Africa, tackling US policy on climate change, family tax credit, progress in eradicating global and domestic child poverty, and our longest period of uninterrupted economic growth to date. No post-war international leader could come close.

If Blair left we would also have to consider the message this would send to the extremists who carried out the attacks. As with Aznar this would be viewed as a huge victory and justification of the attacks, by way of forcing political change.

We must remain resolute and Blair must remain. We need the experience and political expertise of The Great Communicator if we are to overcome this threat to our way of life.

So come on Mr. Blair, this is your moment to shed the shadow of George W Bush and claim your legacy. We must challenge the Middle East and we must not be held to ransom over energy supply, the solution is difficult and costly but we will have to pay this price eventually we just need a leader big enough and wise enough to make tough decisions?.

Are you big enough Tony?