rational geekery

One point I wanted to cover in my essay, but it didn’t fit in with my initial assessment, was a throwaway statement by Fukuyama, which went: -

There are clear benefits to the Iraqi people from the removal of Saddam Hussein’s dictatorship, and perhaps some positive spillover effects in Lebanon and Syria. But it is very hard to see how these developments in themselves justify the blood and treasure that the United States has spent on the project to this point.

This is a line that was peddled by the right around the time of Bush’s second inaugural speech, which I took issue with then; I’m not sure there are any positive ‘spillover’ effects in the Middle East. Democratic elections in Palestine have delivered power to Hamas, in Egypt (as I pointed out) the Muslim Brotherhood are extremely popular, and in Iran the response has been the rise to power of an anti-Israel extremist.

This sceptical position is shared by fellow blogger Freedom, who argued: -

I disagree with that statement. The war did have an impact on the entire region but not in terms of spreading democracy or anything remotely positive. If anything, the Iraq war has effectively convinced dictators that if the great powers (well, the only great power, USA) have made up their minds to invade and occupy a country they will do so regardless of what concessions they offered. In fact, I think the fact that the Iraq war by USA was not at all justified has further delegitimized USA in the eyes of the Arab world. There is an interesting development, in my opinion, wherein the people are inclined to favour neither their dictatorial leaders nor the alleged “liberators”. Although this has been rather difficult to implement. Nevertheless such a perspective is there and has received a huge boost thanks to the Iraq war. Washington’s response to the Hamas victory serves as yet another proof (for Middle Easterners at least) that USA does not want democracy or justice per se, but democracy on its own terms, justice as defined by its interests.